September was a strong month for cement consumption, with increases in 14 of the 15 countries that Jefferies follow. This was partly due to Ramadan being entirely in August this year, whereas it extended 10 days into September last year. Growth rates exceeded 10% in eight countries.
Jefferies monitor cement consumption or production data in 24 countries; five developed countries and 19 emerging markets. Currently September data is available for 15 of them, three developed countries and 12 emerging markets. Cement demand increased in September in two of the three developed countries, the exception being Spain, and in all 12 emerging markets.
This year Ramadan started on August 1 and ended on August 29 whereas last year it started on 11 August and ended on 10 September. In Jefferies’ view this partly accounted for the large increases in cement consumption in September in Indonesia (+43.9%) and Morocco (+35.2%), and at least partly worsened the 30.7% decline in Egypt during August, the latest data available.
In Western Europe demand increased in Germany and France but declined in Spain. Growth remained strong in Eastern Europe in September, and accelerated in South America and Asia. The trend varied by country in Africa.
Cement consumption in 3Q11 was more than 10% higher than in 3Q10 in Colombia (+17.7%), Indonesia (+14.9%), Argentina (+13.8%), Morocco (+12.3%), Chile (+12.1%), Russia (+11.9%), Poland (+10.8%) and China (+10.5%).