Egypt will see declining cement exports in 2009 due to the global slowdown coupled with a government decision to ban cement exports for four months from April, Egypt’s CI Capital Research said on Monday.
But the industry can weather the drop by capitalising on a real estate backlog in the domestic market that will help demand for Egyptian cement continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, the Cairo-based group added in a research note.
CI Capital said cement exports were expected to drop to 700,000t in 2009 from 1.3Mt last year. Exports should recover slightly the following year and hit 2.3Mt in 2011 and 3.9Mt by 2013, the group said.
"Cement exports will be hard hit. Despite the expected hold up in the local cement market, exports have declined since the onset of the crisis," the note said. "We believe that exports will maintain their declining pattern over 2009."
Egypt decided in April to ban cement exports for four months to stabilise local prices, and asked its competition watchdog to investigate practices in the sector over the previous six months, the second such probe in the sector.