After an analyst’s meeting recently with TPI Polene (TPIPL), earnings are estimated to be boosted in 4Q04 with a normal profit of Bt677m (EPS Bt0.86), an increase of 32 per cent qoq, but a decrease of 27 per cent yoy. In 4Q04, TPIPL will not have any extra maintenance expenses and will enjoy a forex gain of Bt868m. TPIPL will have a net profit of Bt1454m(EPS Bt1.96), an increase of 992 per cent qoq and 61 per cent yoy.
 
Over the long term, the cement business is expected to grow from government infrastructure projects. Normally, cement grows at more than GDP growth by 2X. Thus, demand for cement is expected to continue to rise by double digits.

TPIPL debt has continued to fall. After a capital increase and with cash from operations, the company should have reduced debt to Bt28 billion by year-end from Bt46 billion at the end of 2003. Currently, the company has 8 remaining creditors with debt totaling Bt2709m, which are still under negotiation.

The trend going forward is bright for 4Q04, although there could be some conflict with creditors,
(Kim Eng Securities (Thailand): 24 December 2004)