PCA Regional Forecast: coasts to see strongest cement consumption growth

PCA's recently released Winter 2015-16 State Forecast maintains expectations for the strongest rates of cement consumption growth to occur in the West with YoY growth of six per cent. The South (4.3 per cent) and Northeast (4.2 per cent) are expected to grow roughly in line with national averages for 2016. The Midwest (2.0 per cent), undermined by weak commodity prices, is projected to expand at a sub-national rate.

On a Census Division basis, the Pacific (6.5 per cent), South Atlantic (6.3 per cent) and East South Central (6.1 per cent) are expected to lead growth. Robust labour markets and favourable demographics in these regions continue to support increased construction activity.

States with agrarian and energy exposure are expected to continue to lag national averages. For this reason, as well as the matured state of recovery in the interior US, the West South Central (2.4 per cent) is expected to grow at a tempered pace followed by the West North Central (0.9 per cent).

The East North Central (2.8 per cent) is expected to grow at a slightly stronger pace than its Midwest peers, yet some manufacturing weakness may weigh on the region. Growth in the Mountain (5.2 per cent), Middle Atlantic (4.1 per cent) and New England (4.4 per cent) is expected to be in line with national averages.

The state forecast report provides five-year outlooks on state demographics, economics, construction indicators/spending and cement consumption.