In a high-profile interview published this week, President Trump described Europe as “decaying” and criticised its political leadership as “weak” — remarks that, while politically charged, echo longrunning concerns about the region’s economic sluggishness. For the construction materials sector, and cement in particular, the contrast with the United States has rarely felt starker.

Whereas the US will enter 2026 with strong policy momentum, robust demand and firm pricing, Europe is edging toward a slower and more uncertain recovery shaped by regulatory pressure and the lingering effects of the energy shock.

The outlook for 2026 in heavy-side building materials—especially cement—takes shape around a clear gravitational centre: the United States, which remains by far the most attractive and strategically decisive market for global producers. Recent analysis by French bank BNP Paribas underscores how top-performing companies are being drawn deeper into the US growth cycle, where a unique combination of infrastructure stimulus, structural under-supply and resilient pricing sets the region apart from all others.

By contrast, Europe is positioned for a slower and more tentative recovery, shaped by regulatory uncertainty, fragile sentiment and the fallout of high energy costs.

US margin momentum builds
BNP’s latest Construction Compass and Built to Order: Stockpicking in 2026 reports reinforce this trans-Atlantic divergence. The bank stresses that US end-markets will deliver the strongest margin expansion globally in 2026, driven by a rare alignment of disciplined pricing, favourable cost dynamics and structurally constrained supply.

BNP emphasises that US residential construction will remain weak in 2026, reflecting affordability pressure and muted new-build activity. However, this weakness is offset by two powerful demand pillars: non-residential construction linked to industrial reshoring and federally supported infrastructure investment. These segments provide multi-year visibility for producers and continue to absorb materials at scale.

Crucially, US producers benefit from a structural tightness in supply—limited additions of new clinker and aggregates capacity and robust inland demand—allowing pricing to remain resilient even as input costs normalise. Together, these drivers create an environment in which operating margins in the US are expected to expand more quickly and more consistently than in Europe, Latin America or Asia.

This strength is not cyclical as much as structural. The US continues to benefit from several multi-year federal programmes—the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act—each of which supports cement and aggregates demand directly through infrastructure and industrial investment, and indirectly through reshoring-led growth in non-residential activity.

BNP also notes that an additional multi-year highways programme remains possible under the incoming administration, which would reinforce this forward momentum.

With US residential remaining subdued, the combined impact of non-residential and infrastructure spending becomes the defining factor for cement demand. This creates a uniquely favourable mix for the US heavyside sector, where the absence of a strong housing cycle is outweighed by the strength and visibility of other demand drivers.

Producers reposition portfolios
The behaviour of top-performing cement companies reflects this gravitational pull. CRH, trading as a “pure US infrastructure” play, is noted as a particular beneficiary. The BNP report also notes the separation of Holcim’s North American business into the newly-listed and fully independent Amrize as one of the most significant structural shifts in the sector.

Amrize is analysed on a standalone basis, with BNP arguing that the market still undervalues its pricing power, self-help potential and the likelihood of a CRH-style rerating as investor familiarity increases. Holcim, now more Europe-weighted, faces slower growth and greater regulatory exposure.

Cemex and Heidelberg Materials also stand out: Cemex through operational efficiencies and disciplined capital allocation, Heidelberg through the steady monetisation of its decarbonisation and cost-reduction initiatives. Both companies appear to have made a calculated shift toward businesses best aligned with US demand dynamics—aggregates, downstream value-added materials and efficiency-enhancing technologies.

Yet the US narrative is not without risks. BNP notes that import dynamics, especially from Türkiye and Asia, could test coastal pricing discipline in the second half of 2026. Nevertheless, domestic under-capacity, stretched logistics and strong inland demand continue to support pricing power. For now, the bank concludes, the US remains the world’s most profitable and strategically attractive market for cement producers.

Europe’s recovery remains fragile
Against this backdrop, Europe’s outlook appears muted but not without signs of improvement. BNP’s scenario updates suggest that 2026 should mark the beginning of a slow recovery. European housing is forecast to show the strongest demand growth globally, even if from depressed levels. Public infrastructure spending is expected to remain a stabilising force.

However, Europe’s recovery is complicated by decarbonisation regulation, investor scepticism and a pricing environment that is more fragile than in the US. Even under optimistic scenarios, margin expansion in Europe is expected to be modest, constrained by higher energy costs, subdued non-residential demand and uncertainty surrounding regulatory reform.

BNP’s research highlights that decarbonisation is fast becoming a primary competitive differentiator. Improvements in clinker ratios, fuel substitution, digital optimisation and emerging CCUS strategies are increasingly linked to valuation and investor appetite. Europe leads in regulatory ambition but faces structurally higher compliance costs: EU ETS exposure, tightening CO2 benchmarks and limited access to low-cost SCMs all raise the marginal cost of decarbonisation.

Conversely, the US benefits from policy incentives that offset decarbonisation costs and from comparatively greater access to SCMs, notably fly ash. A slower coal phase-out and substantial legacy stockpiles have helped maintain SCM availability in the US, enabling clinker-factor reduction at lower cost than in Europe, where SCM scarcity and carbon price exposure significantly raise compliance burdens.