A new report on global construction conducted by British research group Oxford Economics shows emerging markets will overtake developed countries to become the biggest part of the market in the next decade. In Europe, the East should outstrip the West, with growth in the next decade averaging over 100%, led by Russia and Poland.
The report, Global Construction 2020, showed that building output worldwide should grow to $12.7 trillion in 10 years’ time, measured in 2008 prices, compared with $7.5 trillion now. Developed countries are expected to lag emerging markets, with zero growth in 2010 but growth accelerating by 4.4% in 2011. Construction markets in US, UK, Canada and Australia will rebound quicker but construction in major emerging markets such as India and China will see much higher levels of growth than developed countries through 2020. While the latter will overtake US as the largest construction market by 2018, growth in India will accelerate even faster.
“We expect growth in construction output in emerging markets will be more than three times that of developed countries over the next decade,” said the report, sponsored by the construction groups Cemex, Holcim, Lafarge, and Orascom Construction Industries.
In Europe, growth in eastern Europe will outstrip western European countries, averaging over 100% in the next decade, led by Russia and Poland, the report said.
“We expect rapid growth in construction in Russia over the next decade, resulting in a market worth $335 billion per annum by 2020,” it said.
Russia has the fifth-highest growth of all the countries in the forecast, only slightly behind Nigeria, India, China and Vietnam. Aside from this nation, by far the biggest market in eastern Europe is Poland which the report expects to be one of the 10 fastest-growing construction markets through 2020.