Siam Cement (SCC) is expected to continue to post strong 3Q09 earnings of Bt6.5bn (EPS of Bt5.42) up 9% YoY although slightly down 5% QoQ. This forecast is less than previous preliminary forecast of Bt6.8bn on Sep 11 due to the company’s poor petrochemical spread. Note that 2Q09 had dividend income from one of subsidiary of Bt600m.
Demand in 3Q09 will rise 3-5% recovering from 1H09, down 7%. In addition SCC increased cement prices in third quarter will improve cement profitability. So we estimate cement business profit of Bt1,721m (+11% QoQ, +3% YoY).