Italcementi- Fabbriche Riunite Cemento SpA Crashes 15.9 per cent on weak volume

Italcementi- Fabbriche Riunite Cemento SpA Crashes 15.9 per cent on weak volume
Published: 01 October 2008

Italcementi - Fabbriche Riunite Cemento SpA, Italy’s 2nd largest Basic Materials company by market capitalisation, crashed €1.25 (or 15.9 per cent) to €6.59 in the month ending September 30. Compared with the MIBTEL Index which fell 2,728.0 points (or 12.3 per cent) in the month, this represented a relative price change of -3.6 per cent. The volume was 0.6 times average trading of 7,665,251 shares.

Price Trend: The price dropped 4.5 per cent in the last week. In the last nine months the number of falls outnumbered rises 6:3 or 2.0:1.

Relativities: Compared with the MIBTEL Index which fell 12.3 per cent for the month, this represented a relative price decrease of -3.6 per cent for the month. Its percentile rank in the Italian market was 37 for the month. In the Italian market of 397 stocks, the stock has a six-month relative strength of 31 which means it has underperformed 69 per cent of the market.

Moving Average Price (MAP): The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 0.75, a bearish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has been under 0.75 thirty-six times suggesting further downside. The stock is trading below both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of Euro7.31 is lower than the 200-day MAP of €8.82, a bearish indicator. The 200-day MAP has decreased to Euro8.82. A decrease is another bearish indicator.

Breakdown: In the last nine months the stock has hit a new 52-week low five times, pointing to a downtrend.

Support: The support price is hovering at the €6.06 level. Volume traded at the fragile support price zone was 0.03 times average during the single occasion when the support price was breached. In the last one month the first low was at €6.06 on Sep 30.

Resistance: Resistance is apparent at €8.45. However, selling pressure at that level has been weak; volume was 0.03 times average during the two occasions when the resistance price was breached in the last one month. In the last one month the highest was at €8.45 on Sep 02, the second advance halted at €8.38 on Sep 03.

Volatility: The stock traded between an intra-month low of €6.06 and a three-month high of €8.45. This suggests a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Volume and Turnover Period: There were 4,250,703 shares worth €32m (US$45m) traded. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 79.03 per cent (or a turnover period of 1 year 3 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 0.8 times the average holding period of one year seven months for stocks in the All STARS Index suggests a larger number of speculators on the share register, making it less safe for long-term investors.

Percentage Discount to High: The last price is at a discount of 46.2 per cent to the 12-month high of €8.45 a year ago on 08 Oct, 2007.

Percentage Premium to Low: The last price is at a premium of 8.8 per cent.

Volume Weighted Price (VWP): The price is at a discount of 24.7 per cent to the six-month volume weighted average price of €8.76, which may appeal as a value proposition.