India: the long wait continues

Published 02 May 2017

Despite high hopes of a return to more robust growth rates, the Indian cement sector is likely to close FY16-17 with its slowest performance in over a decade. The third quarter (October-December 2016) proved to be particularly tumultuous as good demand growth seen in the early part of the period was stopped in its tracks by the government’s unexpected demonetisation move which also impacted pricing.

As FY16-17 draws to a close, hopes of a return to more robust growth rates appear to have been dashed (Photo: AJAY)

The pace of India’s GDP growth in the third quarter of FY16-17 exceeded economists’ expectations of 6-6.5 per cent, registering an advance of seven per cent for the period. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast GDP growth of 6.4 per cent while those polled by Bloomberg anticipated a lesser advance of 6.1 per cent. Even though the seven per cent seen in 3QFY16-17 was the lowest growth rate for four quarters, it was higher than China’s 6.8 per cent in the same period.

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