2024: from black swans to green leaders?

Published 22 December 2023

The New Year brings hope for a more “normal” period in the cement markets with a return to profit on the back of favourable price-cost dynamics rather than demand growth. By Paul Roger, BNP Paribas Exane, UK.

Figure 1: forecast growth in cement consumption, 2024 (Source: BNP Exane Paribas)

The past few years have called into question the usefulness of bottom-up modelling, including yours truly for the global cement industry. It is no hyperbole to say in defence that the world has faced an unprecedented number of “Black Swan” moments since 2019 – from COVID-19 to war in Europe. Whilst macro visibility is low and geopolitical risks high, we enter 2024 with hopes of a more “normal” period when forecasting comes to the fore again.

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