Energy complex sees uplift on Ukraine-Russia conflict, but discounts are stable

Since ICR’s most recent energy report, Russia’s recognition of the Donbas region in Ukraine and military move into it are lifting the energy complex. As no war has broken out at the time of writing, medium effects depend on political sanctions and the respect of borders. In the short term, oil is close to US$100.

High-sulphur (6.5%, 40HGI) FOB petcoke price, historical view 2006-22

As coal pushes higher, petcoke prices are increasing. Discounts are stable in neutral zones. The discount for petcoke FOB 6.5 per cent sulphur and 40HGI of US$136 is at 34 per cent, up from 31 per cent (base of comparison: API4, 2Q22 – US$167). For the CIF ARA contract, which is at US$158, this is at 24 per cent, unchanged (compared with API2, 2Q22 – US$166).

Steam coal and petcoke FOB prices - historical view 2006-22