Cement News tagged under: oil

RSS feed

FOB and ARA discounts narrow

01 March 2024, Published under Cement News

Coal stabilised on support at a level of around US$90/t, pressured by gas prices but supported by oil. Continued freight issues in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea are supported the price of oil. Petcoke FOB contracts were stable but after buying for the 1Q24 was completed, trade was low. Discounts on FOB contracts remained stable in the neutral zone, but discounts on ARA contracts fell, returning to neutral as the API2 coal price dropped. Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to continu...

Politics dominates the energy market, oil stabilises but coal drifts lower while petcoke rises on lower freight rates

20 February 2024, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark   The oil price remains subject to a risk premium due to the Israel-Gaza conflict. Providing the situation does not escalate, the market hovers around US$80. Meanwhile, the Ukraine-Russia war is still deadlocked, but the political stage in Europe and potential US election is lurking, making negotiations more likely. In the financial markets both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve have kept rates unchanged and have a two pe...

FOB discounts fall while ARA discounts return to neutral

29 January 2024, Published under Cement News

Coal fell sharply below US$100, due to weak demand and large stocks, on 22 January 2024, while oil hovered around the US$80/bbl mark as freight issues in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea supported oil prices. Petcoke FOB contracts recovered from December lows as demand forecast for 1Q24 and 2Q24 shows an upward trend and discounts were increasing until weaker coal prices emerged. Discounts on FOB contracts declined and ARA discounts returned to neutral from an earlier spell in the cheap zone...

Energy complex continued lower with petcoke seeing new lows and higher discounts

23 January 2024, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The energy complex fell further in December but recovered by the end of 2023. In geopolitical terms, the Israel-Gaza conflict has seen increased risk of spreading and ship attacks in the Red Sea from Houthi terrorists in Yemen increased risk for oil and good shipping. A western UN-backed naval force has put an ultimatum and when attacks stop this would take some support away. The Ukraine-Russia war remains largely frozen, but hints of so...

FOB discounts decrease but ARA discounts up

29 December 2023, Published under Cement News

Coal, along with oil fell to US$100 on 21 December 2023, and OPEC+ introduced new cuts to support oil at US$75-80. However, oil rose due to naval attacks in the Red Sea and trouble in the Suez Canal. Petcoke FOB contracts collapsed as freight rallied making CFR prices expensive.There was also a lack of interest from far destinations. The discount on FOB contracts increased but fell on ARA contracts. Petcoke discount falls (21 December 2023) Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is exp...

Oil pressures energy complex lower despite OPEC+ cuts while petcoke collapses, offering new high discounts towards coal

22 December 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The energy complex fell in November, with oil leading the way. The Israel-Gaza war continued but still without any contagion – and no war premium. Ukraine-Russia war is frozen literally, and some hints of possible talks are emerging to the upcoming Russian election. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have both hinted in speeches that interest rates need to be high but not higher, which has given a relief rally in the financia...

Coal drops and petcoke-coal discounts fall

20 December 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The price of coal declined after the Israel-Gaza war premium was taken out and oil also moved down. Petcoke saw downward pressure by coal with discounts falling. As a result, discounts on both FOB and ARA contracts are now in the lower part of the neutral range.  Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to continue in the US$80-95 range with resistance at US$95, US$105, US$115 and US$135. Support is at US$80, US$68 and US$55 with multi-year...

Energy complex lower on fading war premium while petcoke discounts fall as coal retraces

28 November 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The Israel-Gaza situation seems to be contained from spreading and the war premium has quickly faded as no disruptions in any markets have been seen. The focus has now shifted back to demand and supply. The two major central banks kept their rates unchanged in the October meetings,  keeping to the “higher for longer” rhetoric with inflation still too high for both the US and EU central banks. China’s growth, particularly in the property market...

Israel-Gaza war drives coal higher with petcoke reversing its drop

03 November 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Coal was driven higher by the energy complex responding to the Israel-Gaza war and is now at the top of the US$100-140 range. Petcoke reversed its fall as its discount increased, creating a switch from coal. After reaching the major support at US$80, petcoke bounced back and will now follow coal, possibly at the top of the range. Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to continue in the US$80-95 range with resistance at US$95, US$105, US$...

Drop in oil, reversed by new Middle East situation adding uncertainty, while petcoke discounts attract buyers again

20 October 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark A geopolitics crisis emerged with the Hamas attack on Israel at the beginning of October. The European Central Bank raised interest rates 0.25 per cent but is behind the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This has strengthened the US dollar as the Fed still talks of keeping rates high for longer. The two per cent inflation target is still far away. In October the fear surrounding China’s property market re-emerged and, along with higher interest rate...