The attacks from Israel and the USA on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June and the subsequent exchange of hostilities sent the energy complex sharply higher. Oil surged 10 per cent to US$76. The fear of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz also drove gas prices up and pulled coal higher to US$100. In addition, freight rates have risen sharply.
With CIF up, discounts widened in favour of petcoke with the discount in the neutral zone. On 23 June the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$67 is 45 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$97.00 in the 3Q25. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$90.00 is at a discount of 35 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$110.00 in the 3Q25.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$63-75 range with resistance at US$72, US$80, US$88, US$95 and US$105. Support is at US$63, US$58, US$50, US$45 and US$41 with multi-year support at US$41. For 2025 a broad range of US$50-75 is forecast.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
