Temporary talks between the USA and China stabilised the energy complex with oil ranging just above US$60. Coal and petcoke were slightly higher based on new demand from China. However, geopolitical and tariff issues have not been resolved and the market remains fragile. Cheap Russian coal is still on offer, leaving the petcoke discount slightly higher but in the neutral zone.
On 22 May the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$69 is 44 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$93.00 in the 3Q25. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$87.50 is at a discount of 25 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$99.00 in the 3Q25.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$63-75 range with resistance at US$70, US$80, US$88, US$95 and US$105. Support is at US$63, US$58, US$50, US$45 and US$41 with multi-year support at US$41. For 2025 a broad range of US$50-75 is forecast.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
