The release in July of a revised auction calendar for 2025 and 2026 by the European Commission gave a bullish signal, as the 2025 auctions remain unchanged and there were few adjustments for 2026. This has given funds the green light for going long, given that no additional supply was added to the market for funding Repower-EU initiatives.
The industrial participants saw compliance buying before the September deadline. This all added to prices reaching EUR73 before falling back, keeping the EUR69-74 range, while long-term EUA prices for 2030 were steady at EUR 85.00/t.
The front (Dec 25) contract was down two per cent compared to the last issue of ICR at EUR72.50.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 rose five per cent to GBP48 (EUR58).
Correction: in the last ICR the headline said CBAM was postponed. The correct wording should have been the implementation of the CBAM payments will start one year later in 2027, while CBAM itself is in place – apologies for any misunderstandings this may have caused.
Brannvoll forecasts a range of EUR65-85 in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR75.
