The EUA market has moved in a very tight range of EUR82-87 during the last month, due to lack of actionable news as the EU ETS revision is just in its start phase and will likely not be ready before spring 2027. The moves in the gas market have been a particular driver. In terms of geopolitics and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the fighting and the reduction in exports of LNG and conventional natural gas drove gas prices higher and made coal-fired power generation the cheapest solution. The compliance buying of EUAs has kept the market bid above EUR80. 

The news from the EU is that the CBAM verifiers now are becoming accredited, with the first one passed. This is positive as verified companies will not have to use extremely high default values. The commission has acknowledged that several default values for some countries were indeed incorrect, but timing is now crucial to rectify these numbers – this work is carried out by DG Tax and followed by several associations. 

EUA front-year contract, December 2023-October 2026

The Dec 2026 contract was steady at EUR84.50 and a range of EUR81-86 is expected over the following month. 

The long-term EUA price for the Dec 2030 contract was up by one per cent to EUR99.50.

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The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2026 contract unchanged at GBP60 (EUR71).  
Brannvoll ApS forecasts for Dec 2027 a range of EUR85-105 with an average of EUR95 for the Dec 2027 contract, which is seen as slightly higher than this year.

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark