Cement News tagged under: carbon trading

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Carbon price in range with new changes to EU-ETS and increased coal demand supporting prices

21 July 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices remained as expected inside the uptrend channel of EUR82-95 with high daily volatility. Russian cuts in natural gas deliveries sent gas prices sharply higher, increasing compliance buying for higher coal burn. The EUA has seen new negotiations on the reform to the EU-ETS system all being bullish. The main elements now to be discussed in the European Council are: • increase in the linear reduction factor (LRF) to 4.2 from 2.2 ...

Price in uptrend, volatile carbon market driven by political statements of changes to EU-ETS

22 June 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices traded inside their uptrend channel within EUR82-95 with high volatility. As the Clean Dark Spread still offers best value, more coal is being used and more EUAs are bought for compliance. The EUA has been influenced by new statements for reform to the EU-ETS system and a bullish increase of the targets for emission reductions, which conflicts with the proposed auction of 250m EUAs to fund the required REPowerEU Plan – which s...

Carbon prices rise due to increased coal demand – speculators return to the market

31 May 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices rose above EUR85 as increased compliance buying was seen due to a sharp upturn of coal-fired power generation in the EU, resulting in an estimated 60Mt of additional emissions. The demand was three times higher than the auctioned amounts in the latest auction, significantly supporting the exchange traded market. The speculators, which disappeared during March, appear to have returned to the market following the rise in the...

EU emissions rose 9% in 2021 with market in range trading – less financial participation

26 April 2022, Published under Cement News

The EU ETS verified numbers for 2021 showed a 1.333Mta rise compared to 1.233Mta in 2020, which was the first increase since 2017, reflecting a higher use of coal and even diesel in the fuel complex. The higher coal price may reduce the compliance demand, but this depends on the price for gas substitution. The financial participants in the market are down 85 per cent YoY in April 2022 and combined with a lower trading volume, this has set a narrow trading range. The market may see so...

Largest fall ever as financial players liquidate positions, or are forced to close – return to compliance levels

24 March 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark After reaching EUR98.50, the EUA Dec 22 has fallen to EUR68, representing a 30 per cent drop. This came in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the turbulence in all financial markets. As discussed last issue, financial players were taking profit and new margin calls from losses in other markets sent the EUA in a sell mode. Furthermore, rumours indicate that several large Russian trading companies sold EUAs to get cash, having...

Carbon reaches EUR100 in Cal23 – a new all-time high as power generation demands more coal and gas

24 February 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The EUA Dec 22 has set a new all-time high at EUR98.50, driven by real demand for compliance as especially coal but also gas are increasingly filling the gap left by a drop in nuclear-based power in France. To ensure sufficient baseload electricity, several coal-fired plants are being restarted.  However, financial players continue to make up ~35 per cent of the market and are only buyers with a target towards EUR100. It will be interesti...

Carbon returns to uptrend following retracement from all-time high in December

27 January 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark   The EUA Dec 21 saw an incredible 200 per cent rise during 2021 from EUR31 to EUR92. More recently, the market saw a sharp retracement down to EUR72 reflecting the energy complex as well as calls for measures against financial speculation. However, as a report concluded that no manipulation had been taking place, the market quickly started its uptrend again. Compliance buying increased as power producers are using more coal as this is the ch...

CARBON: New records – now targeting €100 following increased physical and financial demand

21 December 2021, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark   Before its expiry day, the EUA December 2021 contract reached a stunning EUR91.50 all-time high, less than 10 per cent from EUR100, a number only joked about three months ago. An increased demand due to coal being by far the cheapest fossil fuel and speculators pouring in, as mentioned in previous reports, cut through resistance points at EUR75 and EUR80. Speculators have been looking towards EUR80-100 and a 10 per cent profit taking too...

Carbon market falling back as energy complex goes lower, reflects COP26 disappointment

22 November 2021, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark For once there were no new record highs. The carbon market was in the shadow of coal and gas markets, and reflected speculators liquidating long positions and seeing a fall below support at €60. In addition, it is also reflecting a lack of specific carbon news and an overall disappointment in terms of the pledges made at COP26. EUA front-year contract, January 2019-January 2022 No new issues were tabled, and the market fell to a l...

Carbon at new steady high, but European prices turmoil drive new debate of intervention in power markets

25 October 2021, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark As usual, the carbon market set a new all-time high at EUR66 before falling 10 per cent to the current EUR60, five per cent lower than reported in ICR’s previous issue. EUA front-year contract, January 2020-September 2021 A fundamental demand for EUA was seen as several coal-powered plants were put online, driven by higher gas prices. The dark spread was 2x better for coal-fired power production than with gas, setting a true deman...