Cement News tagged under: carbon trading

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EUA prices consolidate at higher level awaiting policy decisions

28 November 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The increase in fossil fuels use for power generation is keeping the demand for EUAs relatively high. However, a mild winter start and a falling energy complex temper this trend. Therefore, a rally above EUR80 is not expected in the short term as an economic slowdown is expected to lead to demand destruction. Speculators have reduced their presence in terms of size and more short positions have been seen. The market is now awaiting politica...

EUA prices stay low due to recession fears and political uncertainty in the market

26 October 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark European carbon emissions were up eight per cent in the first three quarters of 2022  when compared to 2021. This is based on the sharp increase in coal- and oil-driven power production. The political debate of repowering the EU and the potential selling of 250m allowances has been hanging over the market. Increased auctions and the lower production seen in several industries, combined with several speculators going short, kept the market...

Sharp falls testing support - increased auctions combine with an exodus of speculators

30 September 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark After reaching a new all-time high of EUR99.40 just below the magic EUR100, the carbon market has lost 33 per cent, falling to EUR66. Speculators have left the market due to fear of potential intervention as EU member states have looked at capping carbon or suspending the market. Furthermore, traders have closed positions to pay for margin calls in the power and gas markets. Fundamentally auctions are now offering 42m EUAs, up from 20m EUA...

Carbon prices reflect demand destruction but kept up by increased coal consumption, awaiting new regulation

24 August 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices tested the downside, due to fear of demand destruction and potential closing of production sites as a consequence of the lower gas deliveries. In addition to inflation, higher interest rates may dampen demand. However, in the short-term coal production has been increasing and several countries will reopen coal plants and even diesel is being used, increasing the demand for EUAs. Traders sold out when the price broke support a...

Carbon price in range with new changes to EU-ETS and increased coal demand supporting prices

21 July 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices remained as expected inside the uptrend channel of EUR82-95 with high daily volatility. Russian cuts in natural gas deliveries sent gas prices sharply higher, increasing compliance buying for higher coal burn. The EUA has seen new negotiations on the reform to the EU-ETS system all being bullish. The main elements now to be discussed in the European Council are: • increase in the linear reduction factor (LRF) to 4.2 from 2.2 ...

Price in uptrend, volatile carbon market driven by political statements of changes to EU-ETS

22 June 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices traded inside their uptrend channel within EUR82-95 with high volatility. As the Clean Dark Spread still offers best value, more coal is being used and more EUAs are bought for compliance. The EUA has been influenced by new statements for reform to the EU-ETS system and a bullish increase of the targets for emission reductions, which conflicts with the proposed auction of 250m EUAs to fund the required REPowerEU Plan – which s...

Carbon prices rise due to increased coal demand – speculators return to the market

31 May 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Carbon prices rose above EUR85 as increased compliance buying was seen due to a sharp upturn of coal-fired power generation in the EU, resulting in an estimated 60Mt of additional emissions. The demand was three times higher than the auctioned amounts in the latest auction, significantly supporting the exchange traded market. The speculators, which disappeared during March, appear to have returned to the market following the rise in the...

EU emissions rose 9% in 2021 with market in range trading – less financial participation

26 April 2022, Published under Cement News

The EU ETS verified numbers for 2021 showed a 1.333Mta rise compared to 1.233Mta in 2020, which was the first increase since 2017, reflecting a higher use of coal and even diesel in the fuel complex. The higher coal price may reduce the compliance demand, but this depends on the price for gas substitution. The financial participants in the market are down 85 per cent YoY in April 2022 and combined with a lower trading volume, this has set a narrow trading range. The market may see so...

Largest fall ever as financial players liquidate positions, or are forced to close – return to compliance levels

24 March 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark After reaching EUR98.50, the EUA Dec 22 has fallen to EUR68, representing a 30 per cent drop. This came in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the turbulence in all financial markets. As discussed last issue, financial players were taking profit and new margin calls from losses in other markets sent the EUA in a sell mode. Furthermore, rumours indicate that several large Russian trading companies sold EUAs to get cash, having...

Carbon reaches EUR100 in Cal23 – a new all-time high as power generation demands more coal and gas

24 February 2022, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The EUA Dec 22 has set a new all-time high at EUR98.50, driven by real demand for compliance as especially coal but also gas are increasingly filling the gap left by a drop in nuclear-based power in France. To ensure sufficient baseload electricity, several coal-fired plants are being restarted.  However, financial players continue to make up ~35 per cent of the market and are only buyers with a target towards EUR100. It will be interesti...