The market continued its decline during March and the start of April after US tariffs were announced. The EUA price fell to EUR60, as speculators scrambled to reduce risk positions, and the energy complex fell, led by oil and gas. The green focus was awarded a lower priority in the turmoil during the first week after the tariff’s announcement.
Two recent EU initiatives – the Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus – will support heavy industry while making the EU more competitive. The EU stresses it will remain firm on CBAM, with cembureau and other industry associations warning the mechanism needs to be more stringently enforced.
On 4 April the EU released its 2024 verified emissions, which fell five per cent compared to 2023. Emissions from the cement sector also decreased five per cent, mainly due to lower production. While power generation remained unchanged from 2023, the power sector reduced its emissions by 12 per cent in 2024, based on higher generation by renewable sources, according to the EU.
EUA trading was in the lower range of EUR58-70, while long-term prices for 2030 fell sharply by EUR20 to EUR97.50/t. The front (Dec25) contract plunged by seven per cent to EUR64.80 when compared with last month’s ICR. The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 price bucked the trend, rising 10 per cent to GBP43 (EUR50.50).
Brannvoll forecasts a range of EUR65-85 in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR75.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
