Carbon pricing continued its decline during March and early April, falling to EUR60/t (US$65.58/t) after US tariffs were announced as speculators scrambled to reduce risk positions and the energy complex, led by oil and gas, dropped further.
The green focus has become a lower priority in the turmoil during the first week after the tariff’s announcement.
Two European Commission initiatives – the Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus – will help support heavy industry and shift the focus to a more competitive EU. The EU stresses it will maintain a firm stance on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) following concerns raised by CEMBUREAU and other industry associations that the scope of CBAM requires further improvements.
On 4 April the EU published its verified emissions for 2024, indicating these had fallen five per cent on the previous year. Likewise, cement sector emissions had decreased by five per cent, although this was mainly accounted for by lower production. According to the EU, the power sector had reduced its emissions by 12 per cent based on higher production from renewables, since power production was unchanged from 2023.
EUA trading ranged between EUR58-70/t, while long-term prices for 2030 fell sharply by EUR20 to EUR75/t. The front (Dec 25) contract fell by seven per cent to EUR64.80/t compared with last month’s issue of ICR.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 went against the trend and rose 10 per cent to GBP43 (EUR 50.50). Brannvoll forecasts a range of EUR65-85 in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR75.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
