Oversupply factors begin to bite

Oversupply factors begin to bite
17 December 2007

The Baltic Panamax Index went down by 412 points mid-December, finishing at 9394. The four TC’s average lost US$3,400, falling from US$79,100 per day to US$75,700. Last week’s drop in the Panamax market was mainly driven by an oversupply of tonnage in the Pacific, with rates falling by US$5,000.

Mid-December activity levels saw the Atlantic sector remaining steady but somewhat bearish reports broker Barry Rogliano The market has been sustained by a few fresh Panamax requirements. Interest for period was limited
to short durations, and rates for 3/5 months LME delivery Far East were trading in the mid US$70,000s. Futures showed high volatility last week and the FFA’s upward trend sustained the physical market.

For Supramaxes, the situation remains bleak in the Far East: there is hardly any new business around and available tonnage outnumbers cargoes. Indonesian or Australian round-voyages dropped from high-
US$50,000s at the beginning of the week to low-US$50,000s at the end basis north China/Japan delivery. The India iron ore trade is still strong, though rates eased a bit at the end of the week. Owners still expect to
fetch the high US$70,000’s for trips East Coast India to China. By comparison, the Atlantic seems to be the owners’ Eldorado. Supras easily achieveUS$70,000 there, helped by the strong rates in the US Gulf
where the US$100,000 mark was widely broken. Tonnage available for December cancellations is scarce. Handies are still in good demand worldwide, averaging midUS$40,000.

Source: Barry Rogliano Sals Shipbrokers, Paris

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