Peru's cement demand to recover in 2H

Scotiabank forecasts a recovery in Peruvian cement consumption with 3Q demand expected to be close to 2Mt, double the demand reported in 2Q.

"We estimate that domestic cement consumption has exceeded 500,000t in June, the highest level in the last three months, but still notably less than 984,000t in June 2019," predicts Scotiabank.

However, consumption in 3Q20 should remain 30 per cent below the level noted in 3Q19. "While we expect cement consumption to continue its gradual recovery during the fourth quarter of 2020, it will not yet reach the level recorded during the same quarter last year," said Scotiabank.

Scotiabank attributes the forecast increase to the government’s authorisation to resume construction from 1 July onwards and a new one per cent growth target for public investment, including ambitious amounts for the implementation of regional and local public investment projects. In addition, the promotion of post-El Niño reconstruction works in cities in the north of the country following the signing of the agreement with the UK government to implement an execution mechanism similar to that of the Lima 2019 Pan American Games.