CemProspects considers important energy markets

After moving online this year, CemProspects 2020 began yesterday by looking at energy markets of importance to the cement sector. The first day of the session provided a considerable overview of the coal market.

Carlos Alvarez Fernandez, International Energy Agency (IEA), considered the fundamentals and delivered an outlook that noted the considerable effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global energy demand is expected to drop six per cent in 2020, which will be the largest fall in 70 years. Through a deep decline in electricity consumption in particular, coal will be disproportionately affected.

Over the coming months, coal demand will be relying on whether we see a stronger or weaker economic recovery in key markets. As India reported a significant fall in coal demand, this will be a pivotal market to watch alongside the currently stronger markets of China and southeast Asia.

Frank Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, also looked at the increasingly-important EUA carbon market in his presentation. The market is still in an uptrend, despite the impacts of the pandemic. Looking ahead, Mr Brannvoll forecast a price range of EUR27-40 with an average of EUR35 in 2021. Key points for the market include the EU Commission stating that 43 out of 52 industries will face the maximum tightening of free allocations, with some analysts predicting prices to rise to EUR57 over the next 10 years.

The online conference continues today by looking at the freight and petcoke markets.