PCA warns US cement consumption will take time to recover

The PCA's Market Intelligence Group announced its February outlook on the economy and cement consumption in the US.

It stated that COVID-19 is expected to remain an elevated drag on the economic recovery as consumer spending is cautious and accounts for two-thirds of every US dollar generated in US GDP. While COVID-19 relief programmes have prevented the US economy slipping further, by themselves they are not expected to generate growth. US vaccine supply will be at its highest in the 2Q21 and 3Q2. The inflation rate reached 1.3 per cent in the US in 2020 but is expected to rise to two per cent in 2021 before the US dollar strengthens in 2022-23. 

US cement consumption 
The USA has seen a relatively consistent fall in mortgage interest rates from five per cent in January 2019 to 3.5 per cent in January 2021. Residential cement consumption has remained positive, growing from 33,000Mt in 2019 to 34,000t in 2020 with a forecast of 36,000t in 2021. However, residential cement consumption growth YoY has declined from 4.8 per cent in 2017 to three per cent in 2020 and a forecast of 2.6 per cent in 2021.

The non-residential segment is not expected to contribute to cement consumption growth until 2023. In 2021 US cement consumption is forecast to reach 100,00Mt, up from 99Mt in 2020. 

The proposed programme of US government infrastructure spending is more massive than any previous programme in the US. The Biden infrastructure ‘Placeholder’ of US$235bn over 10 years is unprecedented, but the impact on annual cement consumption will only begin to take effect in 2023.