Pakistan’s cement sector is projected to post a nine per cent YoY increase in local cement dispatches for October 2025, according to a report by BMA Research. Local sales are expected to reach 3.70Mt, up from 3.41Mt in the same month last year, aided by a low base effect and a post-monsoon recovery in construction activity. Month-on-month, dispatches are forecast to rise eight per cent.
Average daily domestic sales are projected at around 119,400tpd, slightly below the five-year October average of 129,400t.
Cement exports, meanwhile, are expected to decline 13 per cent YoY but increase 14 per cent MoM to around 0.95Mt. Exports from key producers — Power Cement, DG Khan Cement, and Lucky Cement — are projected to fall by 56, 23, and nine per cent YoY, respectively. Total cement sales for October 2025 are expected to reach 4.65Mt, up three per cent YoY and nine per cent MoM.
Industry capacity utilisation for October is estimated at 68.3 per cent, compared to 66.3 per cent a year earlier and 62.5 per cent in September 2025. For the first four months of FY26, total cement sales are projected to grow 12 per cent YoY, with local sales up 13 per cent and exports 10 per cent.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, retail cement prices fell in October, dropping PKR14 per bag month-on-month in the north to PKR1374 and PKR2 per bag in the South to PKR1443.
Outlook
Analysts expect a continued recovery in local cement demand through FY26, supported by improved fiscal conditions, easing inflation, and lower interest rates. Export growth is also anticipated to contribute to overall sales, while coal prices are expected to remain near US$100/t amid weakening global demand.
By Abdul Rab Siddiqi, Pakistan
