Forecasts for 2026 show that oil prices will likely be lower than in 2025. Because coal and petcoke prices are influenced by oil markets, these are also expected to be lower. The impact of geopolitics and tariffs levels are expected to fade and fundamentals will again play a higher role. Production surpluses will keep oil in a lower range, which will spread towards gas and coal, implicitly keeping petcoke around current levels. The US dollar is expected to weaken both against the US$ index as well towards the euro with 5-10 per cent, giving moderate support for commodity prices. Wars and trade wars, including tariffs, remain the jokers that are hard to estimate.
October saw a Gaza peace agreement to be implemented under the political control of the USA. A potential US attack on Venezuela could jeopardise the calm. A productive meeting between President Trump and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping has led to the postponement of higher tariffs. The US shutdown has now been solved. Sadly the expected Ukraine peace settlement failed to materialise as yet.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its central rates by 0.25 per cent to 4.25 per cent while the ECB rate remains unchanged. This weakened the US dollar slightly as the Fed may want to monitor inflation that has risen to three per cent again. No further cuts are expected from the ECB or Fed in 2025. The Volatility Index (VIX) has risen from 17 to 21, reflecting some worries, especially in the equity markets focussed on AI stocks.
The US dollar rose again towards the euro at US$1.550, still in the range of US$1.15-1.20. Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of US$1.10-1.25 in 2026, with an average of US$1.19.
| PRICES AT A GLANCE - 7 November 2025 | ||
| Brent crude oil – bbl | US$63.50 | |
| Coal API 2 | 1Q26 | US$101.50 |
| Cal 2026 | US$104.00 | |
| Coal API 4 | 1Q26 | US$93.00 |
| Cal 2026 | US$97.00 | |
| Petcoke USGC 4.5 per cent S 40HGI | FOB | US$74.00 |
| CFR ARA | US$101.00 | |
| Petcoke USGC 6.5 per cent S 40HGI | FOB | US$68.00 |
| CFR ARA | US$95.00 | |
Oil
OPEC+ has increased its production again in December and the IEA is now forecasting a supply glut. Even US sanctions against two Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, will not encourage the market, which also fears damage to demand if global GDP falls. Potential sanctions against Russia, Iran and any intervention in Venezuela could trigger higher prices. Continued attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries also give some short-term support, but as geopolitical tension fades, the oil could stay below the US$65 level.
Oil is now in a range of US$62-67, dictated by geopolitics and production increases from OPEC+. Brent oil is trading three per cent lower at US$63.50. TTF (Cal26) gas prices have fallen to EUR31.00 and EU gas storage is unchanged at 83 per cent, still below the previous two years. Brannvoll ApS forecasts a lower Brent price trading range of US$55-80 and an average of US$68 for 2026.
Coal
The coal market has been steady, but the change in front contract (FQ) from 4Q25 to higher 1Q26 has lifted the price used to calculate the petcoke discount. Weak demand in China together with increased domestic production will dampen the seaborne trade in 2026. Colombian coal supply remains ample while South African shipments have increased due to better rail performance. Russian coal is expected to fall in 2026 due to low prices and Australian exports are rebounding. API2 is expected to maintain a US$10 premium to API4 during 2026.
The API2 1Q26/FQ contract moved nine per cent higher MoM to US$101.50, and is expected to remain in the range of US$95-105. The Cal26 contract rose four per cent to US$104. API4 1Q26/FQ contracts rose by 10 per cent to US$93, seeing a short-term range between US$90-100.
Brannvoll ApS predicts a FQ contract range of US$85-115 and with an average of US$100 and API4 in a range of US$80-105 in 2026.
Petcoke
For 2026 petcoke is expected to remain in the lower discount ranges as seen today towards coal. Tariffs between USA and China were lowered and will not increase in the next year, maintaining Chinese buying interest. Turkish buyers have returned despite cheap Russian coal being offered. FOB prices have been supported with slightly falling freight prices while new suppliers are coming to the markets as US refineries have lowered production due to maintenance and closures of cokers.
Confrontation between the USA and Venezuela could halt exports and have an impact on the medium-sulphur market. However, discounts are seen hovering around 20-25 per cent in 2026 for ARA 6.5 per cent.
The USGC FOB 6.5 per cent contract rose one per cent MoM to US$68.00 and the discount to API4 to US$42. The USGC ARA 6.5 per cent contract fell three per cent MoM at US$95.00, while the discount increased to 25 per cent due to lower freight and higher coal prices.
The USGC FOB 4.5 per cent S contract fell one per cent MoM to US$74.00, with the FOB discount to API4 at 36 per cent. The CFR ARA 4.5 per cent contract fell four per cent at US$101, with the discount up to 120 per cent.
Brannvoll ApS expects a 2026 range for the ARA 6.5 per cent between US$85-105 with an average of US$95 and discount of 25 per cent.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
