Pakistan’s listed cement producers are expected to report weaker earnings for the second quarter of FY26, with industry profitability projected to decline YoY despite improving domestic demand. According to Topline Pakistan Research, sector profits are forecast to fall by nine per cent YoY in 2QFY26, mainly due to lower cement retention prices.
Topline estimates total cement sector profit at PKR19.3bn (US$68.9m) for the quarter, compared with PKR21.2bn in 2QFY25. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, higher domestic dispatch volumes and a partial recovery in prices—following a PKR10–20 per bag increase—are expected to provide some support. However, these gains are likely to be offset by rising fuel costs, particularly in the northern region, where manufacturers have been affected by the unavailability of Afghan coal.
Net sales for the sector are projected to increase by four per cent QoQ to PKR107.8bn, driven largely by stronger domestic dispatches. Domestic sales volumes in 2QFY26 are expected to rise by eight per cent YoY and 12 per cent QoQ to 11.20Mt, lifting capacity utilisation to around 63 per cent, up from 61 per cent a year earlier.
Gross margins across the Topline cement universe are forecast at 34 per cent, compared with 32 per cent in 1QFY26 and 36 per cent in 2QFY25. Cement producers in both the northern and southern regions have increasingly relied on Richards Bay coal, which averaged US$85.56/t during the quarter. Average retention prices are estimated at PKR792 per bag, down six per cent YoY but slightly higher QoQ.
By Abdul Rab Siddiqi, Pakistan
