The energy market remained fairly stable despite the geopolitical swings in terms of Greenland, Venezuela and Iran.
Coal prices have edged up but are still below US$100 for API2 contracts. API4 prices keep lagging this by US$6-8.
Petcoke rallied upwards, based on lower production and bigger demand. ARA freight rates are lower.
Discounts on petcoke that fell in January have now returned to the neutral zone. On 23 January 2026 the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$77.00 is 32 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$91.00 in the 2Q26. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$102.00 is at a discount of 17 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$98.50 in the 2Q26.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$70-80 range with resistance at US$77, US$85, US$95 and US$105. Support is at US$70, US$65, US$58, US$50 and US$45 with multi-year support at US$45. For 2026 a range of US$60-75 is forecast.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
