China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell 1 per cent YoYin the final quarter of 2025, putting the country on track for an estimated 0.3 per cent decline for the full year. The latest figures extend a “flat or falling” streak that began in March 2024 and has now lasted nearly two years.
New analysis published by Carbon Brief shows the cement industry played a central role in this outcome. While emissions from fossil fuels rose by an estimated 0.1 per cent in 2025, the increase was more than offset by a seven per cent decline in CO2 emissions from cement production — one of the largest sectoral drops recorded during the year.
Across major sectors, emissions fell in transport by three per cent, in the power sector by 1.5 per cent, and in building materials — led by cement — by seven per cent. The only major exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions rose 12 per cent, limiting the overall decline.
Analysts noted that falling emissions from cement and other heavy industries indicate structural changes in China’s industrial carbon footprint, supported by efficiency gains and shifts in construction activity. However, China still remains off track on its longer-term carbon-intensity targets, keeping policy direction ahead of the next five-year plan in focus.
