Pakistan’s local cement dispatches are expected to decline by four per cent YoY and 13 per cent MoM, reaching 3.08Mt in February 2026. Although official data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) has not yet been released, market expectations point to a negative trend.
BMA Research reports that local cement dispatches may decline month-on-month, primarily due to the seasonal slowdown during Ramadan. Based on these figures, the sector’s average daily domestic sales are projected at 99,400tpd in February 2026, below the five-year February average of 113,400tpd.
Cement exports in February 2026 are expected to increase 40 per cent YoY but decrease 10 per cent MoM, reaching 0.75Mt.
Notably, Pakistan’s total cement sales are estimated at around 3.83Mt in February 2026, marking a three per cent YoY increase but a 12 per cent decrease MoM. Total cement capacity utilisation for February 2026 is projected at 54.3 per cent, up from 52.9 per cent in February 2025 but down from 61.9 per cent in January 2026.
For the eight months of FY26, total cement sales are expected to rise by 10 per cent YoY, with local sales projected to increase by 11 per cent YoY, while exports are anticipated to grow by seven per cent YoY. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the average retail price of cement has decreased by PKR7 per bag MoM to PKR1440 (US$5.14) in the south, while it increased by PKR26 per bag MoM to PKR1409 in the north.
Outlook
Local cement demand is expected to recover in FY26, driven by improved fiscal conditions, easing inflationary pressures, and lower interest rates. We also believe that export growth will contribute positively to total cement dispatches. Experts expect coal prices to remain around US$100/t, citing reduced global demand due to environmental concerns.
By Abdul Rab Siddiqi, Pakistan
