Geopolitical impact was also felt in the carbon market as coal and gas moved dramatically, then fell sharply on the day of writing by 15-20 per cent. Prices have shifted towards more coal burn in Europe and increased demand for EUA in compliance.
The market has also understood after the March meeting that political support for the EU-ETS is still present and only minor changes will be seen for the current phase at the meetings in July.
The overall backing for the EU ETS as a cornerstone in the EU’s green policy was reiterated in March. This led speculators back into long positions for the first time in eight weeks. Discussion of the CBAM default values is now being aided by several associations as these with the lack of accredited CBAM verifiers could be used instead of correct substantial lower emissions values, leading to the wrong CBAM fees to be paid. Cement companies outside the EU risk adding the “correct” CBAM fee on the export multiple times. The Dec 2026 contract is up one per cent unchanged at EUR72 and a range of EUR68-75 is expected over the next month. The long-term EUA price for 2030 has increased by EUR2 to EUR82.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2026 contract has risen three per cent to GBP42 (EUR48). Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of EUR75-100 in 2026 with an average of EUR90 for the Dec 26 contract. The low end is expected to be tested the next few months.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
