US cement consumption is expected to decline by 1.6 per cent this year, but a recession prompted by ongoing trade wars is not expected in 2025, according to the American Cement Association’s (ACA) Market Intelligence team’s Spring Forecast.
“’Uncertainty’ is a key consideration for the construction industry’s outlook in the near term,” said Trevor Storck, ACA regional economist. “The cement industry’s baseline assumes continued improvement in trade negotiations, like the progress seen this week with China. This will provide relief to markets and help restore some investor confidence, supporting a rebound in economic activity.
“But it’s important to note that elevated interest rates that hindered construction activity last year are still in place and continue to play a role in this year’s projections.”
ACA’s baseline calls for the economy to narrowly avoid a recession this year before stronger growth returns in 2026 and 2027. Labour markets are expected to continue cooling in 2025, without a significant rise in unemployment. However, the key headwind facing the housing sector remains affordability. Elevated mortgage rates and home prices will take time to rebalance, holding back growth in near-term home building, says the ACA. Meanwhile, commercial markets are expected to continue easing in 2025, with the strong growth in data centre construction as the only exception. In terms of infrastructure, highways and street construction has been affected by high inflation in recent years although this effect is now slowing. State expenditure growth is also easing as tax revenues are slowing. In addition, there has been no authorisation of a new federal infrastructure programme.
As a result, there is no obvious driver for cement consumption growth in 2025, but moderate growth in cement consumption is expected to return in 2026, accelerating in 2027.
