DNV report claims global CO2 capture and storage to quadruple by 2030

Cumulative investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) is expected to reach US$80bn over the next five years, according to DNV’s new "Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050" report. CCS will grow to capture six per cent (1300Mta CO₂) of global CO₂ emissions in 2050, which falls significantly short of what is needed for any net-zero outcome.

DNV, the independent energy expert and assurance provider, forecasts that CCS is expected to quadruple by 2030.  Up to now, growth has been limited and largely associated with pilot projects but a sharp increase in capacity in the project pipeline indicates that CCS is at a turning point. The immediate rise in capacity is being driven by short-term scale up in North America and Europe, with natural gas processing still the main application for the technology.

In the longer term, CCS is crucial for addressing sectors that are challenging to decarbonise, such as steel and cement production. These hard-to-decarbonise industries are forecast to be the main driver of growth from 2030 onwards, accounting for 41 per cent of annual CO₂ captured by mid-century. Maritime onboard capture is expected to scale from the 2040s in parts of the global shipping fleet. As the technologies mature and scale, the average costs will drop by an average of 40 per cent by 2050, claims DNV.

Ditlev Engel, CEO, Energy Systems at DNV, said “Carbon capture and storage technologies are a necessity for ensuring that CO₂ emitted by fossil-fuel combustion is stopped from reaching the atmosphere and for keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement alive. DNV’s first Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050 report clearly shows that we are at a turning point in the development of this crucial technology.

“But for all this advancement, the trajectory of CCS deployment remains a long way off where it must be to deliver net zero by 2050. Economic headwinds in recent years have put pressure on this capital-intensive technology and corrective action will need to be taken by government and industry if we are to close the gap between ambition and reality.”

CCS will grow from 41Mt CO₂ captured and stored today to 1300Mta CO₂ in 2050, which will be six per cent of global emissions. However, CCS will need to scale to six times this level to reach the amount outlined in DNV’s Pathway to Net Zero Emissions.

DNV forecasts that CO₂ removal (CDR) will capture 330MtCO₂ in 2050 – one-quarter of total captured emissions. Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) is generally the cheaper CDR option and will be used primarily in renewable biomass for power and manufacturing, said DNV. 

Direct air capture (DAC) costs, on the other hand, remain high at around US$350/t CO₂ through to 2050, but voluntary and compliance carbon markets still ensure the capture of 32Mt CO₂ in 2040 and 84Mt CO₂ in 2050.