The American Cement Association (ACA) expects homebuilding activity in the United States to remain subdued until at least the first half of 2026, as high mortgage rates, stretched affordability and broader economic uncertainty weigh on demand.
The slowdown is already evident in recent housing data. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell for a fourth straight month in June, slipping 0.3 per cent. On an annual basis, prices rose just 1.9 per cent —the weakest growth since 2023. The closely watched 20-city composite index posted a 2.1 per cent YoY gain.
New home sales also cooled in July, declining 0.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 652,000 units. While still above the pre-pandemic average of around 600,000, sales were down 8.2 per cent from a year earlier. The median sales price eased 0.8 per cent to US$403,800, while inventory levels held steady at 9.2 months’ supply.
According to the ACA, these figures highlight the challenges facing builders. Despite modest price corrections, affordability remains constrained by elevated borrowing costs and high household debt burdens. Rising inventories and slowing price appreciation suggest further pressure on new residential construction in the months ahead.
“Persistent affordability challenges, coupled with tighter financial conditions, are expected to keep a lid on new homebuilding until at least mid-2026,” the ACA noted.
The cautious outlook underscores concerns that housing, typically a key driver of US economic growth, will provide limited support in the near term. Analysts say any meaningful rebound will likely depend on lower interest rates and stronger consumer confidence.
