Local cement dispatches in Pakistan are projected to increase by three per cent YoY in September 2025, totalling approximately 3.08Mt. This information was revealed in a tentative report by Topline Pakistan Research on cement dispatches for September 2025. The official trade body typically releases the data in the first week of each month.

According to the report, despite the expected three per cent YoY increase, local dispatches are anticipated to decline by one per cent MoM. This analysis is based on actual sales figures from the first 21 days of the month, during which local sales stood at 2.15Mt.

Key observations include:
- The average daily sales in the northern region during the first week (working days) were 90,000t, increasing to 96,000t in the second week and peaking at 108,000t in the third week. For the fourth week, an average of 107,000t per day is assumed.
- In the southern region, average sales have ranged from 10,000 to 18,000tpd, with an assumed average of 15,000t for the remaining working days.
- The MoM decrease in local cement dispatches is primarily attributed to ongoing floods. However, there was an improvement in overall sales during the third week of the month.
- The decline in the southern region’s dispatches is significant, with a drop of 28 per cent YoY and 33 per cent MoM, largely due to the uncertainty caused by the floods. In contrast, sales in the northern region are gradually recovering.
- Exports for September 2025 are expected to decrease by 15 per cent YoY but rise by 11 per cent MoM. Disruptions from the ongoing floods also cause the YoY decline.

For the first quarter of FY25-26 (July-September), total cement sales are anticipated to rise by around 12 per cent YoY, driven by a 10 per cent YoY increase in local sales, while exports are expected to grow by 21 per cent YoY.

Total cement capacity utilisation in September 2025 is estimated at 55 per cent, consistent with the 55 per cent reported in September 2024 and slightly below the 56 per cent in September 2023. Average retail prices in September 2025 remained stable MoM in both the northern and southern regions, according to weekly data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Topline Pakistan Research maintains its base case assumption of an eight per cent YoY growth in local dispatches due to a rebound in construction activities and monetary easing measures.