The energy complex veered slightly negative due to the current geopolitical conditions as the US involvement in ending the Russia-Ukraine war seems at a standstill. However, demand is still affected by prospects of sanctions and Brent oil remains in the US$65-69/bbl range. Meanwhile, coal prices are under pressure due to a good supply. The price of API4 coal has fallen to US$89, while API2 product is dipping below the US$100 mark, with support at US$97.
Discounts on petcoke are lower, descending into the neutral zone, affected by higher prices as supply has slipped. On 19 September 2025 the discount for 6.5 per cent sulphur petcoke FOB sold at US$66.50 is 40 per cent when compared with API4 coal sold at US$89.00 in the 4Q25. The CIF ARA 6.5 per cent petcoke contract sold at US$94.50 is at a discount of 22 per cent when compared with API2 coal sold at US$97.00 in the 4Q25.
Petcoke with 6.5 per cent S is expected to move within the US$64-70 range with resistance at US$72, US$80, US$88, US$95 and US$105. Support is at US$63, US$58, US$50, US$45 and US$41 with multi-year support at US$42. For 2025 a broad range of US$50-75 is forecast.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
