The market has shifted towards the Dec 2026 contracts and this is now trading higher than the closing Dec 2025 contract at around EUR84.
EU’s CBAM is now becoming reality, and this has, combined with increased bullish sentiment from hedge funds, taken the prices higher.
Funds were net long with 110Mt in December, and the market knows that free allocation will fall around 12 per cent in 2026.
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has called for several key areas to be clarified as these elements are still missing before the start of CBAM. It is calling for a focus on clear rules for emission benchmarks, how foreign ETS systems will be treated, and the minimum thresholds that need to met. Finally, clarification of the rules for calculations and verifying emissions is crucial for the CBAM compliance.
The Dec 2026 contract rose four per cent to EUR84.50 and is in an uptrend channel of EUR78-85. The long-term EUA prices for 2030 rose to EUR 96.00/t, up four per cent in favour of long-term commitments.
UK Allowance (UKA) December 2026 rose five per cent to GBP58.50 (EUR67.00) as GBP weakened.
Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of EUR75-100 in 2026 with an average of EUR90 for the Dec 26 contract.
By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
