The EUA market has started higher with little specific news and somewhat bullish based on the factors from last year, with less auctions, and CBAM and political support influencing trading. Speculative trading has all been on the long side. The markets are adjusting to the introduction of CBAM awaiting clear signals.
The EU has published several instructions on the CBAM implementation. However, the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has called for several key areas to be clarified. This year is likely to see the opening of new ETS markets, including the Turkish TR-ETS.
The Dec 2026 contract rose four per cent to EUR88.00 and is in an uptrend channel of EUR83-90.
The long-term EUA price for 2030 is now above EUR100.00/t, up five per cent to the benefit of long-term commitments. UK Allowance (UKA) December 2026 rallied 15 per cent to GBP67.25 (EUR77.60).
Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of EUR75-100 in 2026 with an average of EUR90 for the Dec 26 contract.
By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
