The year began with negotiations between Ukraine, the USA and Europe trying to put together a Ukraine peace plan which Russia can accept. Focus then shifted with the US military action in Venezuela and the capture of President Maduro. The Trump administration has outlined plans to return the nationalised oil reserves to corporate control in the medium term and it may eventually lead to the lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela.
Shortly after the Danish autonomous territory of Greenland came in focus, an event some wrongly saw as having the potential for the invasion of a fellow NATO country, many appear to have overlooked that the USA already has full control of all Greenland’s defence based on the 1917 and 1951 treaties. Despite the press escalating the situation there is no reason think it cannot be amicably resolved between the allies.
Elsewhere, Iran is now facing widespread political unrest and USA has also been sending signals that they could be ready to act again together with Israel.
Despite all these situations unfolding in rapid succession, the markets barely reacted with any kind of volatility. Over Christmas and New Year, the euro has strengthened marginally but remained at US$1.17 at the time of writing slightly higher than reported in last month’s ICR but still in the range of US$1.15-1.20. Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of US$1.10-1.25 in 2026, with an average of US$1.19.
| PRICES AT A GLANCE - 5 December 2025 | ||
| Brent crude oil – bbl | US$61.00 | |
| Coal API 2 | 1Q26 | US$97.00 |
| Cal 2026 | US$96.00 | |
| Coal API 4 | 1Q26 | US$87.00 |
| Cal 2026 | US$87.50 | |
| Petcoke USGC 4.5 per cent S 40HGI | FOB | US$77.00 |
| CFR ARA | US$101.00 | |
| Petcoke USGC 6.5 per cent S 40HGI | FOB | US$71.00 |
| CFR ARA | US$95.00 | |
Oil
The US action in Venezuela has been seen as regaining US control over oil production, which has collapsed over the last few years following nationalisation. US oil companies that reinvest will have the potential to realise substantial increases in output. Furthermore, the removal of export sanctions could eventually see significant quantities of Venezuelan oil enter the market.
For the moment the impact on market prices has been almost zero and prices fell after the US military operation. OPEC+ has reviewed its baseline calculation and, for now, decided to keep its production cuts steady. Some attacks from Ukraine on Russian production and refineries has helped the oil price in the range of US$60 -65. Brent oil is lower at US$61.00.
The TTF (Cal26) gas price is unchanged at EUR26.50 and EU gas storage has fallen to 59 per cent, below the previous two years. Brannvoll ApS forecasts a Brent price trading range of US$55-80 and an average of US$68 for 2026.
Coal
Coal did not really react to the geopolitical events. Russia has kept discounted supply in the markets while Indian production is running high and Türkiye has plenty of stocks, all of which is adding to slightly lower prices.
The API2 1Q26/front quarter (FQ) contract was unchanged MoM at US97.00, with an expected range of US$95-100. The API2 Cal26 contract fell three per cent to US$96.00. API4 1Q26/FQ contracts fell by four per cent to US$87, seeing a short-term range between US$85-95.
Brannvoll ApS predicts a FQ contract range of US$85-115 and with an average of US$100 and API4 in a range of US$80-105 in 2026.
Petcoke
There is no major news on petcoke itself, but lower freight rates have been supportive in a limited trading market.
In the medium term, if Venezuela increases oil production and sanctions are lifted, this will add more supply and open up large stocks of material to the market.
This could potentially lower the 4.5 per cent sulphur petcoke price and the spread towards 6.5 per cent. Short term the discount towards coal has increased due to the coal price going lower. The FOB petcoke prices are approaching resistance levels. The joker in the pack could prove to be Venezuela and a peace agreement with Ukraine, meaning the USA and EU could perhaps remove sanctions on Russian coal exports.
The USGC FOB 6.5 per cent contract rose three per cent MoM to US$71.00 and the discount to API4 was down to 35 per cent. The USGC ARA 6.5 per cent contract was down one per cent MoM at US$95.00, while the discount rose to 22 per cent. The USGC FOB 4.5 per cent S contract was up two per cent MoM to US$77.00, with the FOB discount to API4 down to 27 per cent. The CFR ARA 4.5 per cent contract fell one per cent at US$101.00, with the discount up to 17 per cent.
Brannvoll ApS expects a 2026 range for the ARA 6.5 per cent between US$85-105 with an average of US$95 and discount of 25 per cent.
By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
