Last month’s warning that Iran could be the next geopolitical issue became reality with the US-Israeli attacks on 28 February. This in turn has led to Iran attacking several neighbouring countries, closing the Strait of Hormuz at the time of writing amid ongoing military action. The impact on oil, gas and coal prices has spread into a massive rally in petcoke as well. The markets are trying to assess between the short-term impact on supply and the medium-term impact on demand if demand and production slow and energy prices remain high.

Elsewhere, the USA seems ready to lift sanctions on Russian oil sold to India and other states, which could potentially lead to easing towards Russia. Venezuela is co-operating with the US administration and energy exports are poised to start. War in Ukraine has moved into the background, but peace talks have been ongoing and with the IMF securing funding for Ukraine. 

The VIX volatility index has risen from 18 to 32, indicating strong tensions in the financial markets and the US dollar and gold have seen some safe-haven effect. The euro fell to US$1.1550, down three per cent and testing the range of US$1.15-1.20. Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of US$1.10-1.25 in 2026, with an average of US$1.19.

PRICES AT A GLANCE - 9 March 2026
Brent crude oil – bbl   US$106.00
Coal API 2  2Q26 US$104.00
Cal 2027 US$133.00
Coal API 4 2Q26 US$120.00
Cal 2027 US$115.00
Petcoke USGC 4.5 per cent S 40HGI FOB US$110.00
CFR ARA US$141.00
Petcoke USGC 6.5 per cent S 40HGI FOB US$103.00
CFR ARA US$134.00

Oil
The US-Israeli attacks and the immediate aftermath have led to a massive war premium and a real supply fear if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, leading to a 25 per cent surge in prices and some analysts predicting a move towards US$150, although this is unlikely. 

OPEC+ has increased production and some Russian export sanctions may be lifted. While the market as such is not short, it is an issue if the freight is stopped and refineries closed. The risk to transport and refineries is pushing prices up.
The election of a hardline new president in Iran has spurred the fear of a longer war. Expectations from Brannvoll are that this will be short, and prices will de-escalate as soon as freight routes are being seen as safe. 

Venezuela is also on its way back and this will also support the oil market in the medium term.

The LNG and gas market has also seen massive rallies with 30-50 per cent price increases in the short term. Brent oil is up 54 per cent MoM to US$106 and now seen in the US$75-125 range. The TTF (Cal27) gas price is up 65 per cent at EUR43.50 and EU gas storage dropped further to 30 per cent.

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Brannvoll ApS forecasts a Brent price trading range of US$55-80 and an average of US$68 for 2026, adding US$45 to the top due to the geopolitical landscape.

Coal 
Coal rallied sharply, driven up more by the full energy complex and higher freight rates than by actual supply risk. The combination of a cold winter, higher gas and lower carbon prices made coal the cheapest energy source in several regions and in the volatile market environment, with few sellers, prices could surge. The API2 2Q26/front quarter (FQ) contract rose 40 per cent MoM to US$140, with a wider then expected range of US$110-150. The API2 Cal27 contract rose 25 per cent to US$133. API4 2Q26/FQ contracts rose by 25 per cent to US$120, seeing a wider short-term range between US$100-125. Brannvoll ApS predicts a FQ contract range of US$85-115 (150) averaging at US$100 and API4 in a range of US$80-105 (125) in 2026.

Petcoke  
The impact on the coal and oil markets has been massive as reduced supply and higher coal prices added to the short-term squeeze. The market broke above resistance levels and traders with few trades added substantial premiums to short-term deliveries. Prices could retract just as quickly when the situation in the Middle East calms. Petcoke discounts have risen as the coal markets were even higher. Several cement companies have stepped away from the market, potentially leading to lower rates in 2Q26. 

The USGC FOB 6.5 per cent contract again rallied 23 per cent MoM to US$103 and the discount to API4 at 31 per cent. The USGC ARA 6.5 per cent contract was up 23 per cent MoM at US$134, while the discount rose back to the critical 20 per cent. The USGC FOB 4.5 per cent contract soared 25 per cent MoM to US$110, with the FOB discount to API4 still at 27 per cent. The CFR ARA 4.5 per cent contract rose 26 per cent at US$141, with the discount up to 16 per cent. 

Prices are now expected to stay high during March-April but decline rapidly in 2Q25 if geopolitics calm. Brannvoll ApS maintains a range of US$85-105 (135) for the ARA 6.5 per cent contract in 2026, with an average of US$95 and a discount of 25 per cent, despite the short-term rally.

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark