The American Cement Association projects a 2.5 per cent decline in 2026 cement consumption, driven by an upward shift in borrowing costs following the February conflict in Iran. While the market faces challenges in private construction, the overall industry forecast suggests a return to growth in 2027 despite the ongoing geopolitical and economic pressures.
“A black swan event has come in the form of the conflict with Iran, and it’s clear the longer hostilities in the Middle East continue, the weaker the cement forecast becomes,” said Brian Schmidt, ACA’s Senior Director of Economic Policy and Analytics.
The war has produced a restive bond market, which has pushed up borrowing costs; the prevailing mortgage rate is roughly equivalent to what it was before the Fed began cutting rates last September. All of this implies another weak year for private construction. Yet, ACA’s expectations for the trajectory of cement consumption remain broadly unchanged for this year.
