Cement News tagged under: carbon market

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Carbon sharply higher after change of contract to Cal 24, now pressured from lower energy complex

24 January 2024, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The shift in contract to December 2024 sent the price EUR10 up without any real news in the market. The overall energy complex has gone lower and as a result, the carbon price rallied up to EUR80. Several speculators went short again in the new contract. Industrial demand is still sluggish and is expected to worsen if a recession were to hit the US and Europe. EUA front-year contract, March 2022-February 2024 The COP28 did not sen...

Carbon testing long-term uptrend support at EUR68 after breaking below EUR80

27 December 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark As reported in ICR’s December 2023 issue the break of EUR80 could mean a larger shift in sentiment and this was clearly proven right. Pressured by lower oil, gas and coal prices, as well as continued subdued industrial demand the December 2023 contract has fallen to the major support around EUR68. In addition, financial players have been seen switching out of long positions and going short on a larger scale than before. However, it also nee...

Carbon falling below EUR80 after larger auctions and lower gas prices

29 November 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The carbon market has fallen below the major support of EUR80, pressured by a lower energy complex and shift to gas from coal as a higher spark spread has been lowering compliance buying. The auctions used to provide funding for renewable subsidies have increased, adding to the price pressure. In addition, industrial demand destruction has not recovered and several industries are running on lower production. Starting in October, CBAM is exp...

Carbon price keeps falling, driven by lower gas and coal prices

25 October 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The carbon market was almost unchanged at EUR81 after having reached EUR86, but lower oil, gas and coal prices pushed the EUA downwards. As the support of EUR84 was again breached, technical selling from speculators also increased. The increased auctions kept adding selling pressure to the market. The price is still seen in a EUR80-88 range but may test the major support at EUR78.   EUA front-year contract, January 2022-October...

EUA stuck in range trading – while UK price hits new low

25 September 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Lack of political news kept the market in a range drifting slightly lower due to lower gas prices, fear of industrial demand destruction as interest rates kept rising, as well as weaker equity markets spilling into traders sentiment. The European Commission has proposed that industrial companies must include emission reduction plans with five-year intervals up to 2050 to keep receiving free emission allowances. This proposal is currently un...

EUA stuck in range trading – while UK price hits new low

25 August 2023, Published under Cement News

 By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Lack of political news kept the market in a range drifting slightly lower due to lower gas prices, fear of industrial demand destruction as interest rates kept rising, as well as weaker equity markets spilling into traders sentiment. The European Commission has proposed that industrial companies must include emission reduction plans with five-year intervals up to 2050 to keep receiving free emission allowances. This proposal is currently u...

EUA falls sharply pressured by gas and coal prices

25 July 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Still no fundamental or political news in the carbon market. The EUA prices followed the general market upwards and rallied from major support at EUR77 to EUR92 and now back in the middle EUR86. In August the auctions will be lower than previous months, which may bring some support to the market. In the EU manufacturers and households have seen demand destruction and savings on power demand, and as consumption has been lower, reducing the ...

Testing uptrend support at EUR80, pressured by lower energy complex

25 May 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The carbon market saw a sharp drop towards the major support at EUR80-85/t as market players finalised compliance buying. Lower oil, gas and coal prices forced power prices down and led the drop in carbon prices. In addition, power demand has fallen due to warmer than forecast weather. The UK ETS system widened the margin to the EU ETS in April, as the UK is not expected to deliver the same harsh tightening as in the EU. The December 2023 s...

Compliance buying in volatile markets sees EUA revisit highs

02 March 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark January and the start of February saw the return of compliance buying of EUAs with some market speculators believing the latest changes will support the EU ETS to remain strong within the EU green deal. The volatility of EUA prices has seen dramatic moves between EUR75 and back to highs at EUR97 without any specific news other than changing weather conditions and a relatively thin market.   EUA front-year contract, September 2021-Jan...

EUA prices consolidate at higher level awaiting policy decisions

23 January 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The increase in fossil fuels use for power generation is keeping the demand for EUAs relatively high. However, a mild winter start and a falling energy complex temper this trend. Therefore, a rally above EUR80 is not expected in the short term as an economic slowdown is expected to lead to demand destruction. Speculators have reduced their presence in terms of size and more short positions have been seen. The market is now awaiting politica...