The carbon market did not have much news of its own on which to trade upon. There are political rumours in the market of a potential delay to the EU ETS-2 which, if proven correct, could weaken the market. Discussions between the UK and EU for potential linking of the UK carbon market back to the EU ETS have so far been positive, as this would raise UK prices to EUA levels, but do not expect rapid action.
CBAM discussions remain a driving factor for several new ETS markets with Türkiye, expected to launch its own market in 2026, seen as the biggest newcomer. Following an EU Commission proposal, the sale of CBAM certificates has been moved from January 2026 to February 2027 and therefore no payments are expected before 2027.
At a large CCUS conference, references were given for long-term price levels beyond 2028, which once again are below EUR100/t, needed to support new carbon capture projects. Various industries are looking to establish joint carbon transportation hubs, where several sectors and companies will share facilities and thereby decrease initial costs in the value chain.
In the EU ETS, the cement sector is calling for more direct reinvesting of the money that it contributes into the system to support green projects. EUA prices were seen in a range of EUR67-75/t during the past month, while long-term prices for 2030 again fell sharply by EUR10/t to EUR87.00/t. The front (Dec25) contract rose by 12 per cent to EUR73.00/t when compared with last month’s ICR. The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 price rose further, supported by the EU linking talks, rising 20 per cent to GBP51 (EUR60.00). Brannvoll forecasts a range of EUR 65-85/t in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR75/t.
