Cement News tagged under: carbon price

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Carbon price collapses due to political uncertainty and speculative pressure – major support tested

28 February 2024, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Sharp falls were seen in the European carbon market, as several political factors from demonstrations and political uncertainty hit the market during January and February. This, in combination with the ongoing lower energy complex, especially gas and coal, has sent the price for the Dec 24 contract to EUR60, the lowest seen for years. Speculators have also been seen to shorten the market as large auctions to finance the Repower EU funds are be...

Carbon testing long-term uptrend support at EUR68 after breaking below EUR80

27 December 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark As reported in ICR’s December 2023 issue the break of EUR80 could mean a larger shift in sentiment and this was clearly proven right. Pressured by lower oil, gas and coal prices, as well as continued subdued industrial demand the December 2023 contract has fallen to the major support around EUR68. In addition, financial players have been seen switching out of long positions and going short on a larger scale than before. However, it also nee...

Carbon falling below EUR80 after larger auctions and lower gas prices

29 November 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The carbon market has fallen below the major support of EUR80, pressured by a lower energy complex and shift to gas from coal as a higher spark spread has been lowering compliance buying. The auctions used to provide funding for renewable subsidies have increased, adding to the price pressure. In addition, industrial demand destruction has not recovered and several industries are running on lower production. Starting in October, CBAM is exp...

Carbon price keeps falling, driven by lower gas and coal prices

25 October 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The carbon market was almost unchanged at EUR81 after having reached EUR86, but lower oil, gas and coal prices pushed the EUA downwards. As the support of EUR84 was again breached, technical selling from speculators also increased. The increased auctions kept adding selling pressure to the market. The price is still seen in a EUR80-88 range but may test the major support at EUR78.   EUA front-year contract, January 2022-October...

EUA stuck in range trading – while UK price hits new low

25 September 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Lack of political news kept the market in a range drifting slightly lower due to lower gas prices, fear of industrial demand destruction as interest rates kept rising, as well as weaker equity markets spilling into traders sentiment. The European Commission has proposed that industrial companies must include emission reduction plans with five-year intervals up to 2050 to keep receiving free emission allowances. This proposal is currently un...

EUA stuck in range trading – while UK price hits new low

25 August 2023, Published under Cement News

 By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Lack of political news kept the market in a range drifting slightly lower due to lower gas prices, fear of industrial demand destruction as interest rates kept rising, as well as weaker equity markets spilling into traders sentiment. The European Commission has proposed that industrial companies must include emission reduction plans with five-year intervals up to 2050 to keep receiving free emission allowances. This proposal is currently u...

EUA falls sharply pressured by gas and coal prices

25 July 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark Still no fundamental or political news in the carbon market. The EUA prices followed the general market upwards and rallied from major support at EUR77 to EUR92 and now back in the middle EUR86. In August the auctions will be lower than previous months, which may bring some support to the market. In the EU manufacturers and households have seen demand destruction and savings on power demand, and as consumption has been lower, reducing the ...

Compliance buying in volatile markets sees EUA revisit highs

02 March 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark January and the start of February saw the return of compliance buying of EUAs with some market speculators believing the latest changes will support the EU ETS to remain strong within the EU green deal. The volatility of EUA prices has seen dramatic moves between EUR75 and back to highs at EUR97 without any specific news other than changing weather conditions and a relatively thin market.   EUA front-year contract, September 2021-Jan...

EUA prices consolidate at higher level awaiting policy decisions

23 January 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark The increase in fossil fuels use for power generation is keeping the demand for EUAs relatively high. However, a mild winter start and a falling energy complex temper this trend. Therefore, a rally above EUR80 is not expected in the short term as an economic slowdown is expected to lead to demand destruction. Speculators have reduced their presence in terms of size and more short positions have been seen. The market is now awaiting politica...

EUA rising by end of year, driven by compliance and higher coal and gas prices

23 January 2023, Published under Cement News

By Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark There has been very little direct news in the carbon market, as political discussions of changes to the EU ETS are still ongoing, and are driven by the movements in the fuel market. However, the market, which had been stuck in the EUR65-75 range, broke out to the upside as year end is approaching and compliance buying and short positions closing from speculative trades have propelled the market upwards. From a warm winter the start of ...