Mixed bag from Euroconstruct as forecasts are reduced even further

Euroconstruct has further reduced its forecasts for European construction output, according to figures released last week. Although 2013 is still expected to be the trough, with construction output predicted to decline by 2.8 per cent, volumes in 2015 are now forecast to be even lower than 2012. However, the pace of the reductions has slowed from six months ago.

The reductions for 2013 are spread across three sectors with a fall of 1.4 per cent for housing, 1.2 per cent for non-housing and one per cent for civil engineering. For 2014 and 2015, however, civil engineering is expected to pick up with growth of 1.1 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively. With civil engineering accounting for around half of cement demand in western Europe, this will come as welcome news to cement producers.

Things aren't so rosy for housing and non-housing with Euroconstruct reducing its forecasts by 1.2 per cent in 2014 and 0.5 per cent in 2015 for housing, and by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent in 2014 and 2015, respectively, for non-housing.

Germany is the only country of Europe's five largest construction markets where Euroconstruct is forecasting an increase in 2013. Here, the volume of construction output in 2015 is predicted to be 4.2 per cent higher than in 2012. Although reductions remain in place for France and Italy, Euroconstruct has actually increased its forecasts for the UK to growth of 0.1 per cent in 2013, 0.3 per cent in 2014 and 0.6 per cent in 2015.   Between 2012 and 2015, Italy, France and Spain are expected to see declines in output of 2.9 per cent, 3.2 per cent and 30.8 per cent, respectively.