Pakistan’s cement industry has made a strong start to the new financial year (FY25-26), with dispatches in July 2025 expected to post double-digit growth, according to estimates from BMA Research.
Domestic cement sales for July are projected to rise by 13 per cent YoY and nine per cent MoM, reaching 2.85Mt. The YoY increase is attributed to lower base sales in July 2024, when buyers accelerated purchases to June to avoid an expected federal excise duty hike. Meanwhile, the MoM improvement reflects a rebound following reduced activity in June 2025 due to the Eid holidays.
Despite this growth, average daily domestic sales in July 2025 are expected to reach 91,900t, slightly below the five-year July average of 94,100t.
Cement exports are forecast to show a significant increase, climbing 87 per cent YoY and 18 per cent MoM to reach 1.02Mt. Notable YoY export growth is expected from Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd (ACPL) at 260 per cent, DG Khan Cement Co Ltd (DGKC) at 211 per cent and Fauji Cement Co Ltd (FCCL) at 188 per cent. As a result, total cement dispatches in July 2025 are projected at 3.87Mt, marking a 26 per cent YoY and 12 per cent MoM increase.
Industry-wide capacity utilisation is estimated at 57 per cent for July 2025, up from 51 per cent in June 2025 and 45 per cent in July 2024.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the average retail price of cement rose by PKR 2/bag MoM in July, reaching PKR1450/bag in the south and PKR1374/bag in the north.
BMA Research forecasts a recovery in local cement demand in FY25-26, supported by improved fiscal conditions, easing inflation, and lower interest rates. Export growth is also expected to bolster overall dispatches. Meanwhile, international coal prices are likely to stabilise around US$100/t, amid reduced global demand driven by environmental concerns.
by Abdul Rab Siddiqi, Pakistan.
