decisions from the July EU meeting. The market has been seen range bound between EUR74-80, albeit the change in gas and coal prices has brought volatility over the last month. Trading is still low and long-term speculators/investors await the outcome in July. In early June the Commission released its ETS Investment Booster, a strategy for a EUR30bn facility to complement the Innovation Fund for the net-zero transition of industry, supporting low-carbon strategies and green investment. More details will be published over the next months.
However, there is a growing need to revisit and change CBAM default values for certain countries if the process of accrediting CBAM verifiers is not speeded up substantially. Severe trade disruption, contradicting CBAM’s intention of a level playing field, would result from using extremely high default values instead of verified MRV values for countries.
The Dec 2026 contract is up four per cent at EUR78.50 and a range of EUR72-80 is expected over the next month, providing there are no geopolitical shocks. The long-term EUA price for 2030 has increased again by 4.5 per cent to EUR91.
The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2026 contract has again seen a rally of 14 per cent to GBP55 (EUR64). Brannvoll ApS widens its forecast to a range of EUR60-95 in 2026 with an average of EUR80 for the Dec 26 contract.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
