Topline Pakistan Research has forecast a 28 per cent MoM decline in local cement dispatches for June 2025, with a projected total of approximately 2.63Mt. YoY dispatches are expected to decrease by 15 per cent. This decline is primarily due to the reduced number of working days in June, which was impacted by the Eid holidays. However, APCMA data is yet to be released.
Daily sales are expected to average 88,000t in June, down from 118,000t in May. The YoY drop is attributed to higher pre-buying in June 2024, following increases in the federal excise duty.
Exports in June 2025 are anticipated to rise by 93 per cent YoY but decrease by eight per cent MoM. Lucky Cement and Attock Cement Pakistan Ltd’s exports are expected to increase by 24 and 54 per cent MoM, respectively, while DG Khan Cement’s exports may drop by 56 per cent MoM. Overall, total cement sales for June 2025 are projected at about 3.54Mt, flat YoY but down 24 per cent MoM.
Total cement capacity utilisation is estimated at 52 per cent, down from 68 per cent in May 2025.
For FY24-25, local cement sales are expected to decline by five per cent YoY, while exports are projected to rise by 30 per cent YoY. An improvement in cement sales is anticipated in FY25-26, driven by a recovering economy and lower interest rates.
by Abdul Rab Siddiqi, Pakistan
