The American Cement Association (ACA) is bracing for potential fallout from sweeping new tariffs announced by the Trump Administration even as it downgrades its forecast for cement demand.
On 31 July, President Trump signed an Executive Order raising reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 15 to 41 per cent. Canada, a key trading partner of the USA, saw duties increase to 35 per cent, though cement and other goods eligible under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement remain exempt. Turkey, Vietnam, and Switzerland face higher duties of 15, 20, and 39 per cent respectively, while India will see 25 per cent tariffs in retaliation for ties with Russia. Imports from Mexico will remain at 25 per cent pending further negotiations. The measures took effect 7 August , though tariffs on Chinese goods were postponed 90 days. Legal challenges are expected to reach the Supreme Court in November.
At the same time, ACA’s Summer Forecast Update points to a prolonged slowdown in demand. Cement consumption is projected to fall 3.9 per cent in 2025, with only a 1.1 per cent recovery in 2026. Single-family housing construction is weak, with supply swelling to 9.8 months and builders pausing land purchases. Commercial construction remains sluggish, while public sector projects offer some support but are limited by inflation eroding the impact of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
The ACA noted that the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver two rate cuts of 25 basis points before year-end to counter slowing job growth and tariff-driven inflation, though policy will remain restrictive into 2026.
“The resilience of the US economy will be tested,” the ACA said, adding that the baseline scenario still assumes a recession will be avoided. The association pledged to closely monitor trade developments and their implications for the cement sector.
