The carbon market proved resilient to the weak outcome of the Copenhagen meetings on 2040 green targets.
Furthermore, an IEA report predicts that the EU will undershoot its green 2030 targets by nine per cent as several projects have either stalled or been delayed lately, with priorities being on security and defence. Speculators went in long and technical breaks upwards have underpinned the trend.
On 31 September the maritime sector had to surrender 40 per cent of its 2024 emissions for EU ETS, a number that will increase to 70 per cent of 2025 emissions in September 2026, which proved to have a bullish impact on emission allowance prices. The EUA Dec 2025 shortly tested EUR80 resistance and is now consolidating at a higher range.
The EUA is now in a higher trend channel of EUR74-80.00, while long-term EUA prices for 2030 fell to EUR 80.00/t. The front (Dec 25) contract was up two per cent at EUR78.50. The UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 rose one per cent to GBP56.50 (EUR65.30).
Brannvoll forecasts a range of EUR65-85 in 2025 with a Dec 25 contract average of EUR75. New forecasts will be available in the next issue.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
