Political news drove the market slightly lower during start of November. The EU parliament and council have approved the CBAM simplification process setting the stage for it to start in 2026.
However, a postponement of the EU ETS II until 2028 was published, together with the 2035 and 2040 EU targets. This will impact the transport and buildings inclusion in the system – and be seen as slightly negative.
Therefore, the green transition has moved from top of the EU agenda to third place after competitiveness and defence.
However, the EU ETS is still seen as a firm instrument and CBAM is already moving several countries towards their own ETS. Türkiye is set to launch the TR-ETS in 2026 with two-year test phase.
The EU will aim at a 90 per cent reduction and allow five per cent of this total to be implemented via international credits.
The EUA Dec 2025 contract fell below EUR80 and is now consolidating as traders shift towards the Dec 2026 contract. The Dec 2026 contract currently stands at EUR81.50 and is in an uptrend channel of EUR76.00-82.00. The long-term EUA prices for 2030 rose to EUR 92.50/t, sharply up on long-term commitments.
UK Allowance (UKA) December 2025 fell one per cent to GBP55.50 (EUR63.00) as GBP weakened. Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of EUR75-100 in 2026 with an average of EUR90 for the Dec 26 contract.
by Frank O. Brannvoll, Brannvoll ApS, Denmark
